12.11 – SJW Playoff/Gurley Bowl Update

sasdasdIt’s probably fitting that my season ends in the same manner that probably cost me too many games this season: rosterbation. As I said in my preview, I was weighing the merits of staring Bortles/Tannehill/Mariota this week. Thinking the JAX/TEN game would be a slog like their previous matchup, I went with Tannehill in an all-in play with Parker and Landry. In what looked like a plus-matchup vs BAL, Tannehill “managed” his way to his lowest yardage total by a significant margin and finished with an 86/1 line. The 30+ pt outings from both Bortles and Mariota were just salt in the wound. Maybe the new OC is hitching his wagon to Miller because Landry completely bottomed out with a 2/5 line. At least Parker caught the TD…. The lesson here: You never go full Dolphins. Besides CJA hurting his ankle and JMatt producing a useful stat line, everything else was pretty on par with my expectations.

Possibly one of the most frustrating feelings in fantasy is watching someone on your opponent’s team do nothing for most of the game only for them to suddenly rack up that garbage time production. [EDIT: This game was totally NOT garbage time, my bad. The sentiment of players producing in the final minutes of games after being held down for 90% of it remains however, particularly those “what the heck FLEX” types >:| ] Exhibit A: Cam/Ingram and ….fkn Jerricho Cotchery this week. Despite going full Dolphins, DEN DST left me with a reasonable shot at winning with DeAngelo left to play. Going into NO, you knew Cam’s ceiling was high but up until the very end of the game, Cotchery had been quiet with a 2/11 day; not entirely unexpected considering his production to date. In those last 6 minutes however, an Ingram score and Cotchery’s TD just put the entire matchup out of reach. And no, I don’t find any solace in the fact that Ingram is done for the year with a shoulder injury, in fact, it just makes me saltier >:| . Also, Id be remiss if I forgot to mention the play of TJ Yeldon. Finally getting a taste of TD-regression, he actually got consecutive (!!!) carries at the GL and was able to convert one in addition to a spectacular 4/79 effort catching the ball. Cotch came thru one last time for longtime-NYJ fan, Jeremy and he’ll face off next week vs Drew in the Gurley Bowl semi-final.

And so ends my most disappointing fantasy fb season to date. I aimed high with Foster in the draft and it blew up spectacularly in my face. I’ll come up with a more thorough review of the year later.

 

Gurley Bowl Rd 1:

Ellen Mao def. McAfee’s Colts 135 to 120

Not an entirely unsurprising result, but the way they got there was unexpected. 25pt efforts from Smith and Marshall coupled with ~15pts each from Latavius/Djax/Floyd put Coach vZ up there with the high scorers in wk 13. Drew on the other hand rode huge games from Antonio/Maclin and most surprisingly, Buck Allen to move on. He’ll face off vs Jeremy’s sorely depleted roster in rd 2.

Love 2 collude def Team BBC 137 to 94

Not gonna lie, it hurt to see my boys AJ and Arob explode for nearly 60 combined points. They carried Tyler to a savage beat down of Josh’s team and a rd 2 matchup with Vishnu.

Team Chandra def Closed for the Offseason 105 to 100

I picked this game as my upset pick for rd 1 of the Gurley Bowl and I almost nailed it. Vishnu survived a terrible game by Gurley, a below average game from Julio, and starting Stafford (17 pts) over Ben (34 pts) to squeak by Jon. Jon’s pickups almost got him the win but as has been the case nearly all year, he got nearly nothing from the back end of his roster as Moncrief nearly put up a bagel until a late 33yd catch and Zach Miller was ineffective presumably due to his rib injury. After watching Vishnu utilize the Bernard/Hill hedge nearly every week, Ive rethought my position on how effective a strategy it really is. It just seems to leave too much of a cap on the ceiling of what you could get out of those two starting spots.

 

Gurley Bowl Rd 2 Preview

#1 Ellen Mao vs #5 OFFICIAL RIOT LEADER

Anything could happen in a single week, but Jeremy’s team has just been sapped of too much talent and production to stand up to Drew this week. It’ll take Herculean efforts from Cam/Ivory/Yeldon/Evans to cover for the void that is Floyd/Cotchery for Jeremy to have a shot.

My Pick: Ellen Mao

#2 love 2 collude vs #3 Team Chandra

Ive described Vishnu’s team as a stars and scrubs lineup but unfortunately for him, Gurley and Julio face daunting matchups and I doubt they’ll be able to carry his team this week. Martin/Alshon/AJ/Arob should be enough for Tyler to advance to the Gurley Bowl Finals.

My Pick: love 2 collude

 

SJW Playoffs Update

#1 deflate deez nuts vs #4 Team Varma (Currently 110.6 to 158.3)

UPSET ALERTTTTTT. Turns out the injuries to Edelman/Gronk may be too much for Alee’s team to overcome despite the late-season emergence of Rawls. A fading Fitz, “floor” games from his studs Devonta/Shady, and injuries to/ineffectiveness of TBenj/”TE”/CAR DST/Gano have left Alee in a brutal hole. Conversely, in peak fantasy football playoff tradition, Shubh’s team exploded for a season high 158 in week 13 off the backs of JStew/Baldwin/Forte/PIT DST/Nugent. A 55pt deficit is a daunting task for any team to overcome, but I think Alee’s undefeated team has a bit of fight left in them tho Im sure Shubh wont let off the gas either.

#2 The Limping Dez vs #3 Team Reffe (Currently 145.6 to 113.1)

Both these playoff teams are trying to overcome injuries, but the difference may be the emergence of David Johnson for Aleks/Adrian. Whereas RB was a huge hole for their roster, David Johnson has filled it beautifully with nearly 16 ppg over these two week (ARI played in TNF). Walker/Cooks/OBJ’s huge games last week made up for below average production from Carr/Blount/Dez. Whereas Aleks and Adrian had David Johnson fall into their laps, there was no such help for Dylan when Lynch (not that TY has been that great either) and Rishard Matthews went down. Only 9 ppg from AP isn’t helping and he’s found himself relying on the likes of Hoyer/Spiller/Roddy to try and overcome a 30 pt deficit in week 14. Perhaps a late concussion to Cooks could open the door for Dylan to mount a comeback, but the odds seem to be against him.

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