12.2 – SJW Gurley Bowl Rd 1 – vs “OFFICIAL RIOT LEADER”

Gurley Bowl has finally arrived! Seeded right in the middle, I get a rematch with Jeremy in rd 1. Our week 11 matchup was a pretty ugly affair as his studs rolled over my team. Since then, both of us have made trades (both with Tyler amusingly) for RBs; DeAngelo for myself and Ingram for Jeremy.

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Cam has been superb and has a dream matchup @NO. Even without Rob Ryan, NO’s defense just hemorrhages fantasy goodness for opposing offenses. CAR isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but the trend has all season has been that Cam’s dual-threat skills ensure a high floor even in negative gamescripts, so this week shouldn’t be any different. Newcomer Mark Ingram’s steady week-to-week production has carried him to RB #3 despite breaking the 20 pt plateau only once. A neat 5.0+ ypc in the past two games kind of wasted with only 14 carries as NO got down early in both games. Ingram does get work as a pass-catcher, ensuring a high floor each week. If NO wants a chance to hand CAR its first loss, I think it’s going to be by Ingram moving the chains and keeping the NO defense off the field.  Ivory’s been taking and dealing a lot of punishment this year; vs NYG, there is a good chance that he gets asked to salt away a lead to end the game. To be honest, you really could do a lot worse than Yeldon as a RB2 this year as he continues to get enough volume to matter for a tidy 10 ppg average. JAX continues to refuse to give him the ball in the RZ, but maybe this week he’ll see positive TD regression befitting a player that receives the amount of work he does (but hopefully not this week 🙂 ).

Evans only put up 3/48 vs ATL last time they faced off and while ATL’s CBs are probably fast enough to keep from getting beat deep, Im not so sure they (or most DBs really) stand a chance if Evans bodies them up in the RZ. Snead was a 0 last time Jeremy and I played, but seems to be back from a knee injury that probably hampered him them. CAR’s pass defense is elite so his upside is relatively low even if NO trails and has to pass more. Pretty nice of Crowder to score his first career TD the one week he plays versus me (:salt:), but since Desean’s return, he’s seen his workload significantly drop. He did have a TD called back last week so maybe he could score a short TD if WAS is close to the endzone, but seems like he’s behind DJax/Garcon/Reed in line for targets. No Graham for Jeremy, but B-God remains. Davis replaces the injured McCown at QB for CLE. Not sure if that’s good or bad for Barnidge. On one hand, a green QB might lean on his TE more (Davis did play with Cooks, another athletic tho less skilled, TE in STL), but Davis is also presumably not as good a QB as McCown. Im inclined to think that Barnidge has shown enough this season that he can overcome lesser QB play and that Davis is the kind of QB that would actually run the plays instead of yoloing like a Manziel would.

So question, stick with Bortles in a mu that produced one of his worst totals of the year (albeit in a TNF game) or steam a different QB? Tannehill (vs BAL) and Mariota (vs JAX) are also options. Bortles seems to capitalize mostly on garbage time, but Im not sure he’ll see much of that this game… It’ll be something to think about the rest of the week. CJA has outperformed Hillman recently, though both have been splitting the RB work in DEN. If CJA is announced the starter, Id be a lot more confident in starting him, but regardless, he looks to be one of my better options this week. Deangelo has been a monster at home this year so hopefully he can continue that trend vs IND.

My slot shame trio of Jmatt, Landry, and Amendola is what I have in right now. Landry shouldn’t have much trouble reaching his floor vs BAL. If active, Amendola should see plenty of targets vs a PHL defense that has been embarrassed by all kinds of receivers in recent weeks. Bradford is on track to return this week and as heavy road underdogs, maybe Jmatt can capitalize on some garbage time… Kelce hasn’t had a game quite like his 6/106/2 line from week 1, but OAK continues to get exposed in the middle of the field and by TEs (minus-Ebron) so he should have a good day. As has been the case most of the year, TDs might be a little hard to come by with this group of receivers so hopefully their catch totals and yardage can make up for that.

Im still undecided on a FLEX. Adams had 10/79 (on like 20+ targets) last time vs DET, but I get the feeling that Rodgers and GB realize that targets are wasted (even if they get caught) on Adams and he’s been slowly phased out of their offense. Austin is the epitome of boom-bust but he did have his best game (6/96/2 and 2/20 rushing) vs ARI; Im just not sure ARI is the kind of team that wouldn’t make adjustments to a performance like that. Blue seems like the boring (and not even that safe) option. The most interesting player just may be DeVante Parker. He posted a 4/80/1 line last week vs NYJ after Rishard went down. Much hyped coming into the season, a recurring foot injury and lack of NFL-readiness delayed his debut. Maybe it’s too risky to start him (don’t even know if Stills/Jennings are starting over him or not) and starting him and Landry would be putting a lot of eggs in the MIA basket (at that point, just go all in and start Tannehill too?), but his upside and matchup is tantalizing…

Injuries and trades have shuffled some players on both sides, but I think this will be a good matchup still. Hopefully I can resist rosterbating too much with my QB and FLEX and move on to rd 2.

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