This week Im up against Vishnu’s studs and duds lineup. He’s just biding time for his players to return whereas I probably should probably be pressing a little harder to get a 2-0 this week. Luckily for him, his studs, Gurley and Julio are in prime situations for monstrous production this week. Coming off a BYE, Gurley gets CLE’s defense which ranks 31st in run defense DVOA. When STL is up, they run; when they are down, they also run. Gurley’s the center piece of that offense and STL has shown that they have no qualms about riding him for 25+ touches a game. Julio had a nice 10-day break to get healthy and is facing TEN. The TNF game showed how essential the downfield threat of Julio is to setting up their run-game. Im expecting Julio to go back to being used all around the field and getting fed plenty of targets regardless of TEN’s #6 pass DVOA defense (#2 DVOA vs WR1s). Gurley and Julio might ream me in this matchup, but they’re for sure going to be the center-pieces of my DFS lineups. It should be noted that SEA DST has a great mu @SF as well.
Outside of those two, it gets a lot dicier for Vishnu. Newly acquired Randall Cobb is on BYE as are his trio of Bengals, Hill/Gio/Jones. He’ll be hoping for some magic in the form of Sproles (tough mu @CAR), Twill (lol), Kearse (0 or 10pts, no inbetween, though SF is a doable mu), Ben Watson, and Jacob Tamme. If Ben comes back, he has a great mu @KC whereas Flacco has a poor one @ARI on MNF though the gamescript may dictate that Flacco throw a lot.
For myself, my QB situation has totally fallen apart. Currently slated to start Fitzpatrick @NE. Im just expecting moderate QB2 production from Fitzmagic with the potential for a more pass-heavy gamescript if NYJ finds itself playing catchup. Currently trying to see if I can procure a stronger QB via a trade. I did flirt with the idea of starting Landry Jones if Ben cant play. KC’s pass defense has been exploited all year and Bryant has returned for PIT, but with their third-string QB, I think PIT will aim to just run the ball on KC. Although KC’s run defense stuffed AP last week, I think they’ll have more trouble with Bell and PIT’s OL.
Foster of course is starting. The low YPC is a bit concerning, but he’s been making up for it the past two weeks with his production in the passing game. Duke got banged up last week vs DEN, but still showed his useful PPR-floor. He should be good to go this week and vs the STL pass rush, he may be needed as a quick outlet. The workload in CLE was split almost evenly between the three RBs last week, but Im hoping that that was more a result of Duke leaving becuase of injury and that Turbin cuts more into Crowell’s workload than Duke’s. To great fanfare, CMike is supposedly arriving this week, but Im tempering my expectations a bit. Something like 6-8 carries this week rather than a true bellcow role seems more reasonable than what all the hype might suggest. Hopefully he can score a TD and show enough to earn a greater share of the work later.
No AJ this week as he’s on BYE, so Im left with ARob, Moncrief, and JMatt. Im expecting Moncrief to have the best week vs a NO defense that continues to be a sieve. ARob has been a beast thus far and seems like a go for the London game. My main concern however is that he get the same attention AJ got from the BUF defense last week. BUF’s 24th rank in fantasy points allowed to WRs is actually a bit misleading. They’re pretty good at limited opposing WR1’s (ex Odell, AJ), but then get beat by team’s other WRs (ex Harris, Jones), so this may be more a Hurns/JT game than Arob. His worst games have been when teams focus on taking him away (CAR, NE, IND), but maybe he’ll be able to catch a TD. The little ESPN blurb sums up JMatt pretty well, he’s still leading the team in targets, but isnt really doing much with them. Every offensive skill player has a risk of contributing to turnovers, but for some reason, it seems like JMatt’s are more backbreaking than others’. Maybe he really does miss the spacing that Maclin provided last year. Im not really expecting much to change this week vs CAR’s excellent secondary. Kelce gets a PIT defense that’s middling vs TEs other than royal screw ups vs NE (4 TDs to TEs) and SD, but KC doesnt play on an offense like NE and isnt Antonio Gates. If Maclin cant play, Kelce really is KC’s only weapon remaining so maybe he gets more looks, but the offensive pie in KC is rapidly shrinking.
Noone on my team is probably going to sniff the output of Gurley/Julio this week. If either Jmatt or Arob can produce in difficult mu’s or if the duds of Vishnu’s lineup have truly dud games, I may be able to pull off a win. Good news is, I dont think I’ll be against another 140pt opponent this week; bad news is, I dont think either of us will be finishing among the top6 scorers this week.
So another BYEproduct of the BYEpocalypse, I have no TE and dont really feel like dropping anyone for one. Aria is currently 6-0 while Im am just a 4-2 pleb. If Maclin cant play Sunday, I’ll be forced, yet again, to play Cooks. Im currently trying to turn my backup QBs into BYE week fillers for this week but not having much luck. BYE the way, how tf are you going to name your team “By the Hand of Odell” and not even have Odell on your team… that’s just poor managing.