10.13 – Week 5 Recap

I think if you gave fantasy owners free reign to construct their teams, the vast majority of them would just go ahead and pick the highest scoring players. In a game where you’re trying to accumulate more points than your opponent, thatd be the the most reasonable thing to do. When you have a team of stars, the chance that one player can just win you weeks rises. Of course, the reality is that no one’s team is perfect and we are all at the mercy of the football gods when that first whistle blows. Im reminded of the wise words of Dark-type master, Karen:

Strong… Weak… That is the only selfish perception of people. The truly skilled should try to win with their favorites.

The way my team is currently constructed is more akin to a Rube-Goldberg machine than some Elite 4 Champion team. Instead of an all-star team of OP game breakers like Dragonite after Dragonite being thrown at you, my team’s success hinges on the idea that the quality of the average player on my team is good enough to beat most other teams’. The problem with this is that it relies on everyone at least hitting their scoring “floor”. When they dont, there just arent the “stars” on my roster that can pick up the slack. This week’s result was a prime example of that low-end scenario.

SJW:

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So for the third week, Ive fallen to the highest scoring team in the league. Below-average production from Jmatt, Moncrief, and Kelce dug a hole too deep for even Arob and DEN DST to dig me out of. [Small victory: Arob out-scored Maclin 😀 ]Everyone else actually had pretty solid weeks. AJ’s 70-yard bomb getting called back because Whitworth decided to commit his first penalty ever on that specific play was a bit frustrating, but ultimately wasnt the difference between a win and a loss this week. I was joking earlier that DEN DST was my best player, but after avging just under 17 ppg through 5 wks, that’s no joke.

I think Jmatt is still a WR2, but probably closer to WR3 than WR1.  A good explanation I heard about slot receivers is that they tend to go as their offense goes. When things are clicking, they’re awesome, but when the offense is stymied or otherwise slowed down, the slot position seems to suffer more. Jmatt’s inability to hold on to the ball isnt helping his cause either. Ever since week 1 when that pass bounced off his hands for the game-winning INT, he’s seemed to have had his confidence shaken a bit. Maybe it’s just the situations when they happen that make them stand out more in my memory, but I was actually a little surprised when I found out that he’s only been credited with 3 drops on the season. The PHL offense is seemingly getting their mojo back, albeit slowly, and the schedule does start to get easier. Any other league, Id probably be trying to buy low on Jmatt.

I’ll give Moncrief a mulligan for this one too. TNF game, back up QB, team feeding Andre for a revenge game… lot of factors could explain the dud. I think the biggest one is the fact that he’s a 2nd year WR stepping into a bigger role. With Luck back and 10 days to rest/prep, I think he’ll be fine. Despite the huge game, Andre still looks old and slow, so I dont expect him to cut into Moncrief’s targets long term. We havent even really seen Moncrief break off those huge TDs that were his calling card last year.

A year removed from his surgery, I was hoping for more consistency from Kelce this season but he’s been hot and cold thus far. He did have one RZ target that I saw, but he didnt turn around fast enough and it bounced off his hands 😦 . The loss of Jamaal is obviously a negative for the whole KC offense, but maybe they’ll lean more on Kelce and Maclin as a result. It is worth noting that KC’s OL is the 2nd worst in the league (according to FBoutsiders adj sack rate), so they may be keeping Kelce in line to block more, regardless of how much of a waste it is of his talents. Still, through the first 5 games, he’s seen 20% of KC’s targets (good for 5th-most among TEs) and he’s sure to get a piece of the 20% of KCs targets that were going to Jamaal. Nitpicking with a top-5 TE when there are teams starting Ertz/Allen/etc…#firstworldfantasyproblems

With just four players (Eli/Demarco/Forsett/Eifert) scoring a 100 pts between them, maybe I should be grateful that Drew’s team only scored 140 pts. I said I’d be platinum mad if I got cheesed by Golden Tate, but he only managed 10.2 pts even after getting the most targets of any player in wk 5. Brown is being held back by his own team as much as opposing defenses. Allen suffered as Rivers had to rely on quicker reads since his OL couldnt protect him and Gates returned and did exactly what made me bearish on Allen in the preseason. Forsett predictably did work vs CLE (though having him on my Fanduel teams did ease this blow a bit…). Very kind of Demarco to save his best game of the season for this week… Has he turned the corner? To be honest, I dont really know. He’s again been out-produced by Mathews and most of Demarco’s work was done during garbage time. I wonder if it’s worth it to just start both together like some do with Hill/Gio. The dirty little secret about SEA’s defense could be that they cant cover TEs (#30 in defensive DVOA vs TEs). Combine that with a TE in Eifert that’s shaping up to be one of the best in the league and you get a huge day for fantasy. Gotta give Eli props for putting up a huge stat line even without Odell and Reuben for parts of the game. The NYG fan in me is happy, but the fantasy owner in my weeps. Eli’s schedule is a relative cake walk for the next month (@PHL, vsDAL, @NO, @TB). If the run game continues to suck, NYG’s best bet on offense may just be to have the ball in Eli’s hands.

I think for a team that whiffed spectacularly on their first-rounder, CJA, and spent the first four weeks of the season waiting for Foster to return, my team hasnt done too badly. A respectable 6th in total points scored (610 pts), Ive been totally crushed by a league-high 680 points against — 70 pts higher than the next highest team. Good thing we switched to the different way of calculating W-L because 4-6 is far more palatable than 1-4. Having played 4 of the top 5 teams currently (and about to go h2h vs #6 next week), hopefully my schedule will lighten up and I can still make a push for the playoffs later.

CoDG:

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It’s always a good week when you beat Vishnu. Sure he didnt have Luck or Lynch, but who’s counting right 😀 ? Im sure he’ll get me back in our wk 7 matchup in SJW when he gets Julio and Ben back and I have AJ and the DEN DST on bye. A total of 7.5 pts from Ryan and Hill miraculously didnt screw me as everyone else had solid/great weeks. This is pretty much how I envisioned my team when I drafted it, so it’s nice to see it be successful and even more enticing knowing that it could have been even better.

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