10.6 – Week 5 Fanduel Notes

Here’s some players Im scoping out this wk in Fanduel. I wonder if I should just consider the $10 I put in this year like an entertainment cost and just ride it out to see how long it last me…or until the whole DFS bubble bursts whatever comes first :P. I didnt take a look at the lines for week 5 yet, so this is a bit of a rough draft. This week, I tried to find players that I thought had a good shot of beating a 3pt/$1000 ratio.

RB

CJ Spiller (@PHL, $5500), Darren Sproles (vs NO, $5700)

  • Similar players, in similar roles, at a similar price point, AND playing in the same game vs each other. I think Spiller has a little bit more defined role in his offense, but Sproles adds the chance of a return TD.

Danny Woodhead (vs PIT, $6000)

  • Some yds rushing, a bit more thru the air mixed in with some catches and a TD, Woody can be a nice value if you go big on some other position. PIT’s run defense is actually decent and they’re getting Shazier back I think… If SD’s OL is still banged up, maybe they opt to use Woodhead in lieu of Gordon.

Legarrette Blount (@ DAL. $6200)

  • An option if you think NE put it away early and just kills clock with Blount. They are -9 over DAL.

Doug Martin (vs JAX, $6500)

  • This one feels a bit like chasing last week’s production. Sims could be a factor that takes away some potential catches.

Todd Gurley (@ GB, $6600)

  • Da hype! Unsteady OL, probably going to be down playing @GB, actually Vegas on projects them as scoring ~17 pts…just some factors that could cut into his production, but who knows if he’s ever this cheap again.

Dion Lewis (@ DAL, $6900)

  • You saw what Devonta did to this defense right? Pst…I think Dion is better…a LOT better 😉

Justin Forsett (vs CLE, $7200)

  • I think BAL runs a lot, just a little worried they use Taliaferro for GL work. CLE is awful vs the run however, so I think Forsett is a pretty safe pick this week (too bad Im playing vs him in SJW…:( )

WR

Danny Amendola (@ DAL, $4600)

  • Really a GPP option only. 2 TDs and he’s paid for himself pretty much

Ty Montgomery (vs STL, $4700)

  • Similar deal to Amendola.

Nelson Agholor (vs NO, $5200)

  • Creeping up. Maybe this week he breaks out a pretty poor NO secondary.

Willie Snead (@ PHL, $5300)

  • Is he the deep threat that NO needs? Can Brees get the ball to him deep? Pretty blind, low-confidence pick, but a possible consideration.

Kendall Wright (vs BUF, $5900)

  • BUF can lock down a team’s #1 WR, but they’re not as good vs other WRs. Wright doesnt exclusively play on the outside, so there’s the chance that he’s one of Mariota’s hot reads vs a BUF defense that’s going to be coming after him.

John Brown (@DET, $5900)

  • Will I ever stop believing? Idk if the safety net of a bunch of catches will ever be there with Brown, but he’s as good a big play threat as anyone. @DET isnt the best mu albeit this team is coming off a deflating loss on short rest.

Travis Benjamin (@BAL, $6200)

  • People are still waiting for the floor to fall out from under Benjamin (*cough* THIS GUY *cough*), but he’s flashed that he’s more than just a lucky deep threat. I think he’s the #1 WR in CLE, runs hella fast, and is playing a BAL defense that’s been ravaged thru the air.

Allen Robinson (@TB, $6300)

  • This might be wishful thinking from a new ARob owner, but if teams realize that Hurns will just eat all day if they focus too much on ARob, it might give Robinson the room he needs to operate. Vegas really seems to respect TB’s defense because JAX is not projected to score much. (N. b. – wow, I just realized that they’re both named Allen…idk if this is worse than ARI’s J Brown or D/C Johnson situation or not…)

Jordan Matthews (vs NO, $6800)

  • Two down weeks might have deflated JMatt’s price, but he’s still been heavily targeted (~25% of PHL’s passes) and vs NO, that could translate to a high floor this week in FD’s 0.5 ppr scoring. Last week was at least a positive step for PHL’s passing attack.

Jeremy Maclin (vs  CHI, $6900)

  • Similar reasoning to JMatt. CHI is deadlast vs WR1’s and Maclin may be KC’s only WR for all I know. Two straight 20 pt games, Maclin is HOT. The spectre of Alex Smith still looms constant and there’s a chance that the gamescript turns in KC’s favor quickly and they lean on the run game.

Emmanuel Sanders (@OAK, $7700), Demaryius Thomas (@OAK, $8600)

  • One is going to get fed targets, dunno which. I think Sanders is the better value. At least in DFS, you arent tied season-long to Peyton if you have one of these guys cause he is not inspiring much confidence right now.

TE

If you’ve simplified your DFS strategy to “just start whichever TE is playing OAK”, Daniels seems like the play this week. Some other options to consider:

Julius Thomas (@TB, $5200)

  • Prob just a yolo GPP play since you don’t know what he’ll be like, but ~20pts would be that magic 4pt/$1000

Gary Barnidge (@BAL, $5400)

  • I havent personally seen any of Barnidge’s snaps, but others who have say they like what they’ve seen. He seems to be a favorite target of McCown’s. Jeremy has pointed out to me however that BAL is very strong vs TEs (4th in DVOA vs TE) so know that before employing Barnidge.

Charles Clay (@TEN, $5700)

  • Fking Incognito robbed Clay of a spectacular TD last wk vs NYG with some bullshit chop block. Clay still had a solid scoring day in spite of the missed TD. He’s a trusted target for TyGOD and with Watkins, he’s pretty much the primary receiving option. Getting serious Vernon Davis-Kaepernick vibes from this pair. Get in while the price point is still low.

Travis Kelce (vs CHI, $6500)

  • This guy may be the most tsundere fantasy player out there right now. Some weeks he’s hot, others cold. Vs CHI, he has a chance to demolish them, but like Maclin, if KC pulls ahead early, it may be a lot of rushes for Charles and West. Of course, how fast can you really build a lead when you only kick FGs…

I didnt really look too deeply at DST and K yet since I didnt look at the lines, but at a glance, I really like NE DST @DAL and Gostkowski (shocker I know…). QB is another position Im pretty conflicted on since they start at higher prices than the skill positions, but one that particularly stood out to me was TyGOD @TEN.

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