10.1 – Week 4 Preview

SJW:

I dont think an 0-2 week would be totally damning for my season, but are no truly bad teams in this league so its not like you can farm them for wins and come back. After starting 0-2, Josh and Team BBC have ripped off consecutive 2-0 weeks including a thrilling 0.4pt MNF victory last week.

sjw

Team BBC is headlined by Aaron Rodgers. The #1 fantasy QB up against a SF defense that couldnt stop a paper bag, 25+ pts are all but guaranteed. Eddie Lacy, another major piece of the GB offense, leads his RBs. Last time I went against stack like this was Brees and Ingram when they played TB. NO struggled that game and I had a chance to win the mu, but Im doubt that happens this week cause Rodgers is just that good. The hope would be that GB just puts this away early — Rodgers chills in the 4th, and Starks comes in for Lacy to just run out the game. More likely is something like 3/4 TDs for Rodgers and 1/2 TDs for Lacy and ~50 fantasy pts between them, but hey, one can dream right?

CJ?K and Melvin Gordon are his other RBs. CJ had his best game in what seems like forever last week. Maybe ARI goes up big again vs STL and CJ gets to run out the game again, but Ellington and David Johnson might cut into that work a little bit more this wk. Of course, there is always the chance that he just breaks off a big gain again vs a STL defense that is amazing at rushing the passer, but not so much defending the run. Not too shabby for a $1 FAAB pickup. Gordon has struggled through three games, but has had some flashes including some nice 20+ yd gains. A CLE defense that just got abused by Latavius Murray is a plus mu at SD, but the SD OL is a little banged up and Woodhead lurks to vamp those RZ touches.

This ones for u Alee 😛

Team BBC has probably the oldest group of starting WRs of any team in the league. Steve Smith popped off for 37 pts last week. With BAL more desperate for a win than even my own team and vs a porous PIT defense on TNF, the stars have aligned for Steve to have a great game. Ice up son. Vjax has predictably disappointed this year, but if (when?) TB falls behind, they’re going to ride Winston and the pass game. Evans will probably draw Norman so Vjax could have a nice day. On the flip side of that GB/SF mu is Boldin. If Kap can stop fking throwing the ball to defenders, Boldin might be able to rack up the garbage time points. Its only week 4 so these old timers should still have some juice left in them yet.

For me, if this PHL/WAS game truly does get moved due to the impending hurricane (PHL and WAS share a week 8 BYE which I assume the game will be moved to), Im just going to take it as a sign from the fantasy gods that Im just not meant to win this week. Bradford is simply a wth-play vs an underrated WAS defense. If the weather truly is awful, the Bradford-Jmatt connection that my team relies on could be even more tenuous.

RB is another shit show on my team. I dont think I will roll with CJ vs a strong MIN defense. Contrary to the ass-kicking they received from Carlos Hyde in the season opener, I think they’re decent (#19 in run def DVOA), but more so, the DEN rush offense is just unsightly right now. In their place right now, I have Duke Johnson and “HOU RB”. I dont know if Foster will play or not (I doubt it since a week 5 return makes more sense – see my FAAB Couch team review for more). Blue is a guy I really wish I didnt play. He’s painfully mediocre as a runner (plays too high imo, especially for someone who is 6’2”) and is only really useful when given a lot (20+) carries. ATL has given up the most fantasy pts to RBs so far, but playing @ATL, Im not sure the gamescript will allow for Blue to rack up that # of carries. On the brightside, HOU’s best OL, Duane Brown, is supposed to return so yay? Duke has been slowly getting more work, especially in the passing game. Hopefully this is the wk, vs a weak SD rush defense (#29 in rush defense DVOA), that CLE realizes that Crowell sucks and tries giving Duke more work. Even if the PHL/WAS game is on, Im not sure how much work Mathews would get or even how effective he would be in such a slog. At least Chip has modified his playbook to fit his personnel (less pulling by the guards) so there’s some hope for PHL to become that offense we all dreamed of having a piece of in the preseason.

AJ gets to go up against a KC defense that just been ravaged so far this season. Peters has had the fortune of cutting his teeth vs Hopkins, DT, and Cobb and now AJ. KC losing Gaines to an ACL injury probably mean more for Marvin Jones and Eifert than AJ. [EDIT: I forgot that Sean Smith is returning from suspension this week. He’s a bigger CB that might match up better vs AJ, but Id still call this a good mu for CIN receivers] Maclin caught KC’s first WR TD in over a century (at least it seemed that way if you were on Twitter at the time). Alex Smith really only got it going with Maclin during garbage time (which started in like the third quarter). One of Maclin’s drops looked like he was surprised that Alex even threw him the ball, but at least we now know Smith knows that Maclin exists. Moncrief has a TD in all three games so far which is pretty cool. Hopefully Luck’s arm is ok and Donte racks up some more yards vs JAX. Ive talked abt Jmatt alrdy and there isnt much to say about Kelce either. CIN’s defense is tough, but Im confident Kelce will still be able to produce decent numbers.

ESPN has me as a 16 pt underdog, but FantasyPros thinks Im a 2 pt favorite; sort of reflective of how uncertain this mu is. I think his lineup will be static (ie – no change in starters) whereas mine is kind of dependent on the status of this PHL/WAS game. Either way, I think he’ll be able to ride Rodgers/Lacy/Smith to a win. Even if Foster plays, Im not sure I have the firepower to contend with what that trio should do. I’ll say probably an 0-2 week, maybe a 1-1 if Im lucky and can pull off the straight win thought Im not confident I break into the top6 this wk.

CoDG:

codg

After getting humbled last wk, my team in CoDG will look to get revenge against Aleks for last wk’s loss in SJW. Pretty much the same script as always for my team (lean AP/my QBs and hope for everyone else to at least hit their floor), just with Flacco in for Brady while TB12 is on BYE. Cant count out Julio, Calvin, or Keenan, but the rest of his players have some hard matchups. I think I’ll win this mu. And no, I have no idea what “Chandrasekhar” means.

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