I think Ive found my least favorite draft spot. I joined another RCL last night and got the #5 pick. Leveon fell to me at 5, but after that it was a complete shit show. My overall impression is that I bungled the mid-rounds and Im still not pulling enough value out of them. Starting from round 4, I hated the value of the players in that range. Looking back, I think I should have just taken players even if I knew I liked their value more a round later. In Hearthstone (any TCG actually..) there’s the concept of “tempo”. Basically, if you’re forcing everyone else to react to you, you have tempo, but if you’re the one reacting (“on the back foot” if you will), you dont have tempo. I felt myself slipping in round 2, treading water in round 3, and then completely losing tempo in round 4. In fantasy, if you lose tempo during the draft, it usually presents itself as lost value during picks and results in a weak team at the end. Im not sure what the right response is if you lose tempo during a draft. What I did was start reaching for players I liked. If I was going to lose value with these picks, I wanted to get guys that at least had upside. The team I ended up is below:
First three rounds were pretty textbook. The only thing that stood out to me was Forsett at 13. In 0.5 ppr, I think people have a tendency to overrate the impact of 0.5 points per reception, but if someone is your guy and you know he wont be coming back to you later, nothing wrong with taking him. This is the first draft that Ive actually gotten Leveon, my fellow Lisfranc injury victim, so I was pretty excited. It’s this exact point in drafts that I dread. Once AJ Green is gone and you’re left with my next tier of WRs (Hilton, Jeffery, Evans) or next tier of RB (Murray, McCoy) it feels like you missed the boat on getting good value out of your 2nd round pick. I debated going Demarco, but decided on Jeffery. The #1 option in CHI, I liked his chances best at possibly returning above-average value at the pick.
I would have been fine with any of Matthews/Cooks/Miller/Ingram falling to me in the third and I just followed my board and took Miller. Passing on Shady at in the third could be fatal, but the only thing I find myself liking about him is that on a Rex Ryan-led team, Shady will probably be getting a lot of touches.
Here is where I started to hate my draft. I was really hoping that one of Adams/Andre/Sanders would fall to me in the 4th, but they all got taken. I really did not like any of the names around here. Randle/Marshall/ARob/Watkins were all names I was debating. I think I would have been happier had I just taken Marshall, especially considering the leaps of faith I took with the rest of my WR corp. Randle is just so unproven and just so unknown for me to feel very confident in him. Hopefully Im being overly pessimistic and Randle actually is good behind that DAL OL.
Marshall, ARob, and Ivory were taken before my pick in the 5th. I wonder if I was on tilt after taking Randle in the 5th, because I decided to yolo pick Sammy Watkins in the 5th. Insane talent, but how much will a Rex Ryan team really pass, especially with the QBs they have? I wonder if I would have been better served taking Landry/Maclin, two more guys I was targeting that were taken before my next pick.
In the 6th, I was really hoping that Foster would fall to me. I instead went with Agholor. At the time, I knew it was a reach, and immediately after the draft I was wondering if I had just blown my 6th rd pick on a third straight unproven player. Stepping back and looking at the other picks taken in that area, I think Agholor isnt as outlandish as I thought. I was thinking about breaking my position on waiting on QBs and taking Brees, but he was picked before it got to me.
Usually, it’s suggested that you take a mix of “safe” players and “upside” players to hedge your team construction. By this point, I think I was full yolo-mode because I took a third straight unproven WR in John Brown. I really think Ryan and Brees will put up similar #s this year, and considered Ryan after missing on Brees, but continued to wait on QB.
In rd 7, I debated between Brown and Charles Johnson. Unfortunately, Johnson didnt make it back to me in rd 8. After three straight WRs, I probably should have taken a RB and I was considering Mathews (Id like to say I was looking at Duke Johnson as well, but I think I may have missed him/thought he’d last longer). Romo in rd 8 probably wasnt necessary. It was a while before another QB was taken and even Tannehill/Rivers/Cam lasted til rd 10/11 and Bradford went in rd 12. Round 8 was actually a very solid round, I think all the players taken in the round are very useful/good values.
Round 9, I didnt really know what to do with the pick, so I went Stevie Johnson. Again, Im inundated with WR. I probably should have taken McFadden and locked up the DAL backfield or handcuffed Leveon with DeAngelo Williams. Pretty much a waste of a pick in a draft where I probably needed to add a lot more safe “floor” players to balance my yolo picks or at least back up some of my early round investments.
Nothing too notable here. I took two backups in David Johnson and Ronnie Hillman. Neither RB is a good bet to be a good replacement if one of my Bell/Miller/Randle goes down since they still have guys in front of them. It was around here that QBs started to get taken. Cam in rd 11 is absurd, even with the loss of Benjamin. I really think Cam will be doing his damnedest to carry CAR this year. Dorsett was yet another WR. He may actually be one of my first cuts if I dont see anything positive out of him early. It took until rd 13 for me to pick up TE. I do believe that after Bennett, there really isnt much difference between the TE #6 to like TE #15. I took ASJ, I probably should have targeted Daniels earlier, especially since I didnt need Dorsett.
Again, I went far to WR-heavy in my draft. My main problem is probably that I tend to favor upside WRs way too much and it leaves me perilously thin at RB. If like 2 of my upside WR picks work out and are somewhat consistent, maybe it’s not too bad, but as of now, my team is a pretty risky proposition. There were a bunch of WR picks that I identified as almost wasted picks, since they were so redundant. I think I also need to try harder not to get tilted when I have stretches where I am not getting max-value out of my picks. Just breaking even at a pick is still a better outcome than reaching and losing value. These RCLs are real leagues, but they’re almost like mocks for my main league. I can have two more teams on Yahoo, so I’ll try and squeeze two more RCLs before my main league’s draft. Let’s see if I can pick my spots better in those drafts.